Summary 16 September 2019
World Crude Oil Prices
Over the previous week:
Sydney’s last price cycle lasted 28 days, 2 days shorter than the previous cycle. Today is day 5 of the price cycle, with the average price for regular unleaded fuel in Sydney at 150.2 cents per litre (Monday morning).
Over the past week, the average Mogas price rose 3.8 cents per litre with the Australian dollar falling 0.5 cents to 68.7 cents against the US dollar. Given current market forces, and prices falling from the top of the cycle in the Sydney market, average unleaded petrol prices are expected to fall to 132 cents per litre in the next 2-3 weeks.
Average regular unleaded prices in Sydney should range between 132 cents per litre (at the low point of the current cycle) and 159 cents per litre (at the high point of the new cycle).
The average price ranges for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 should be as follows*:
E10 - a low point of 130 cents per litre and a high point of 157 cents per litre.
Premium 95 - a low point of 146 cents per litre and a high point of 173 cents per litre.
Premium 98 - a low point of 153 cents per litre and a high point of 180 cents per litre.
Sydney’s current average diesel price is 145.3 cents per litre – up 0.4 cents per litre this past week.
The current average LPG price in Sydney is 76.5 cents per litre – down 0.2 cents per litre this past week.
Drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq plant.
This attack occurred over the weekend, Saudi Aramco have confirmed that more than 5 million barrels of oil production a day will be immediately lost, equivalent to 5-6 per cent of global supply. Oil analysts are predicting that crude oil could hit $US 80 -90 a barrel over the next few months. Tapis Asian crude is trading at $US 63 per barrel. At $US 80 per barrel the price to Australian motorists – will increase 17 cents per litre. And at $US 90 per barrel – Australian motorists could pay an additional 27 cents per litre. Global oil prices have risen over the past week due to the following factors:
1. Reuters reported that "The new Saudi energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, confirmed expectations that he would stick with his country's policy of limiting crude output to support prices."
2. Reported data showed that China's crude oil imports rose by 3% in August. Chinese demand would act to rise global prices.
3. A meeting of OPEC nations and its allies (known as OPEC+) reinforced its commitment to the production agreement. Saud Arabia indicated that it would keeping cutting production more than agreed.
4. Traders fretted about the outlook for the global economy and thus demand for oil.
*Forecast estimates only, we recommend using the fuel search in the my nrma app to compare fuel prices in real-time.
NRMA produces a weekly fuel report to help Members be better informed on petrol prices and the fuel cycle to help with savings at the bowser. The NRMA Member exclusive my nrma app also has fuel finder functionality comparing the price of fuel in the NSW searched area.