Weekly Fuel report - 28th of April 2020

Summary 28 April 2020

  • Average regular unleaded prices in Sydney should range between 142 cents per litre (at the high point of the
    current cycle) and 87 cents per litre (at the low point of the current cycle).
  • Average regular unleaded prices fell 7.2 cents per litre while diesel prices fell 4.0 cents per litre this past week.
  • Global Factors – Last 7 days

    Weekly average Tapis (Asian crude) price fell 9.4 cents per litre (cpl) in $A.

    The weekly average Singapore price of unleaded petrol, Mogas 95, which is the key petrol benchmark for Australia fell from $US 19.38 to $US 19.30 a barrel this past week, equal to a fall of 0.7 cpl in $A.

    Global prices continued to be volatile in trading this past week due to the following factors :

    1. Collapse of the April futures contract for crude oil in the United States which expired last week. The contract price fell to negative $US 50 per barrel AT ONE STAGE. This was a unique event.
    2. Oil traders are now moving into later dated contracts, that is, 3 to 6 months contacts replacing the current monthly contracts,
    3. All spot price crude oil indicators including Bent, Tapis and West Texas Intermediate fell about $US 10 per barrel in two days of trading last week.

    The global oil market is in crisis as leading producers struggle to curb supply sufficiently to counter the huge destruction in demand from the COVID-19 crisis. The global economic lockdown has reduced consumer demand with commuters working from home, factories shut down and airlines hit by travel bans. According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the global oil market is also on track to test storage capacity within 3 weeks.

    Reuters has suggested that global oil demand has collapsed by around 30 per cent since the pandemic escalated in March with households and businesses consuming less fuel due to COVID-19 restrictions. The situation is unlikely to improve in the near term with demand expected to fall by 29 million barrels per day in April, according to International Energy Agency estimates.

    In addition Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria and Nigeria have all begun production cuts ahead of the May 1 start date for OPEC+ supply cuts (cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day). However oil traders don’t believe the reductions will be enough to balance the oil market. COVID-19 demand destruction is estimated to be 20-30 million barrels a day.

    Australian motorists should see further fuel price falls in the order of 3.-4 cents per litre over the next 7 days.

    Sydney Metropolitan Area

    Sydney unleaded petrol average prices ( E10, Regular, Premium 95 and Premium 98 grades of fuel ) have fallen 5.9 pl this past week.

    Average regular unleaded prices are now expected to fall towards 87 cents per litre in the coming week.

    Current average wholesale price for regular unleaded in Sydney is 83.7 cpl, up 2 .0 cpl on last week.

    Today is Day 40 of the newt cycle. The last cycle was 34 days in duration, 3 days longer than the previous cycle.

    Current average prices are as follows E10 – 88.5 cpl, Regular – 91.0 cpl, Premium 95 – 106.4 cpl and Premium 98 – 112.4 cpl.

    Sydney’s average diesel price is 118.4 cpl, down 4.1 cpl this past week.

    Average Sydney LPG price is 79.2 cpl, down 1.0 cpl this past week.

    Central Coast, Newcastle and Wollongong

    Last week average regular unleaded prices have fallen 4.4 cpl in Newcastle, 5.6 cpl in Wollongong, and 6.3 cpl for the Central Coast.

    Regional NSW

    Over the past week average regular unleaded prices fell 7.2 cpl while diesel prices also fell 4.0 cpl. Over the past seven weeks regular unleaded and diesel prices have now fallen 29.4 cpl and 21.1 cpl in regional NSW.

    In the past week - most notable price movements in regional towns occurred as follows:

    1. Regular Unleaded prices – rises nil.
    2. Regular Unleaded prices – falls, Woolgoolga 11.3 cpl, Muswellbrook 11.6 cpl, Nowra 11.9 cpl, Orange 15.5 cpl, Yass 21.4 cpl and Moama 25.5 cpl.
    3. Diesel prices – rises, nil.
    4. Diesel prices – falls, Orange 7.1 cpl, Cootamundra 7.3 cpl, Yass 7.5 cpl, Taree 7.7 cpl, and Lismore 8.2 cpl.

  • World Crude Oil Prices

    Over the previous week:
    • The average crude oil price fell 2.7 cents per litre; and
    • Sydney’s Terminal Gate Price for regular unleaded fell 3.9 cents per litre to 81.7 cents per litre.

    Sydney Prices

    Sydney’s last price cycle lasted 34 days, 3 days shorter than previous cycle. Today is day 40 of the current price cycle, with the average price for regular unleaded fuel in Sydney at 91.0 cents per litre (Tuesday morning).

    The most expensive point of the current cycle was Friday 20 March at 142.3 cents per litre for regular unleaded petrol. The highest prices for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 were 141.4, 161.1 and 164.7 cents per litre respectively.

    Looking Ahead

    Over the past week, the average Mogas price fell 0.7 cents per litre with the Australian dollar falling 0.2 cents to 63.4 cents against the US dollar. Average unleaded prices have fallen 6.1 cents per litre this past week, with 3-4 cents per litre falls now expected in the next 7 days.

    Average regular unleaded prices in Sydney should range between 142 cents per litre (at the high point of the current cycle) and 87 cents per litre (at the low point of the current cycle).

    The average price ranges for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 should be as follows:

    E10 – a high point of 141 cents per litre and a low point of 84 cents per litre.
    Premium 95 – a high point of 161 cents per litre and a low point of 102 cents per litre.
    Premium 98 – a high point of 165 cents per litre and a low point of 108 cents per litre.

    Sydney’s current average diesel price is 118.4 cents per litre – down 4.1 cents per litre this past week.

    The current average LPG price in Sydney is 79.2 cents per litre – down 1.0 cents per litre this past week.

    *Forecast estimates only, we recommend using the fuel search in the my nrma app to compare fuel prices in real-time.

    NRMA produces a weekly fuel report to help Members be better informed on petrol prices and the fuel cycle to help with savings at the bowser. The NRMA Member exclusive my nrma app also has fuel finder functionality comparing the price of fuel in the NSW searched area.