Summary 28 January 2020
1. Investor concerns that if the Coronavirus spreads it may lower economic activity and demand for oil. However, Saudi Arabia said OPEC could respond to any changes in demand to support price.
2. Continuing high levels of US and Asian crude oil stockpiles – but they are falling.
3. US Energy Information Administration expects US crude production from shale deposits to be at record highs in February.
4. Reuters reported that, "Two major oilfields in southwest Libya began shutting down after forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar closed a pipeline, potentially cutting national output to a fraction of its normal level, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said." However analysts expect the disruptions to be short-lived and any lost production may be met with supplies from other producers.
World Crude Oil Prices
Over the previous week:
* The average crude oil price rose 0.1 cents per litre; and
* Sydney’s Terminal Gate Price for regular unleaded fell 1.1 cents per litre to 130.2 cents per litre.
Sydney’s last price cycle lasted 33 days, 14 days longer than previous cycle. Today is day 14 of the current price cycle, with the average price for regular unleaded fuel in Sydney at 137.4 cents per litre (Tuesday morning).
The most expensive point of the current cycle was Wednesday 15 January at 164.7 cents per litre for regular unleaded petrol. The highest prices for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 were 163.7, 181.8 and 186.8 cents per litre respectively.
Over the past week, the average Mogas price fell 0.9 cents per litre with the Australian dollar falling 0.5 cents to 68.5 cents against the US dollar. Average unleaded prices are nearing the bottom of the cycle in the Sydney market and are now expected to fall to 131 cents per litre over the next 7 days.
Average regular unleaded prices in Sydney should range between 131 cents per litre (at the low point of the current cycle) and 160 cents per litre (at the high point of the new cycle).
The average price ranges for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 should be as follows:
E10 – a low point of 129 cents per litre and a high point of 158 cents per litre.
Premium 95 – a low point of 147 cents per litre and a high point of 177 cents per litre.
Premium 98 – a low point of 153 cents per litre and a high point of 183 cents per litre.
Sydney’s current average diesel price is 148.7 cents per litre – down 0.8 cents per litre this past week.
The current average LPG price in Sydney is 85.9 cents per litre – up 0.1 cents per litre this past week.
*Forecast estimates only, we recommend using the fuel search in the my nrma app to compare fuel prices in real-time.
NRMA produces a weekly fuel report to help Members be better informed on petrol prices and the fuel cycle to help with savings at the bowser. The NRMA Member exclusive my nrma app also has fuel finder functionality comparing the price of fuel in the NSW searched area.