Following the US-led attacks on Iranian targets on 22 June, the conversation on global crude oil supply and its flow-on effects on Australian fuel prices has ramped up in intensity again.
The NRMA’s Peter Khoury has been unequivocal on where fuel prices in Australia are expected to head; however, he has warned against fears of immediate pricing inflation.
With prices currently near the low end of a fuel cycle period, and prices likely to increase soon, Mr Khoury suggests now is the time to buy.
“If you live in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne, Adelaide or Perth, fill up now,” he told a media address in Sydney yesterday.
“The wholesale price in Australia has gone up about eight cents a litre since two Fridays ago, when the escalation really flared up between Israel and Iran.
“It will go up again, this is the expectation.
“We don’t know by how much … based on what we’re seeing out of the US, it could be three or four dollars a barrel.”
At the close of Asian markets last week, the weekly average of Tapis – the crude oil used as the main price referencing indicator for Australia – had climbed US$7.50 (AU$11.58) per barrel. This translated to a 7.3-Australian-cent price increase per litre for Tapis in Australia.
The key petrol benchmark in Singapore (Mogas 95) also rose by the equivalent of 6.0 Australian cents, with the benchmark diesel (Gasoil) climbing 10.1 cents.
According to Mr Khoury, it’s normal to see a delay of seven to 10 days in the reflection of domestic costs, meaning Australian fuel prices may start to inflate from as soon as this Friday, 27 June.
Last week, the average fuel price in Metropolitan Sydney fell 9.1 cents per litre, however it rose 5.8 cents in Canberra, 6.0 in Wollongong, 11.0 cents in Newcastle and 12.0 cents on the Central Coast.