Carmakers at crossroads amid Chinese EV boom

One of Australia’s most popular car brands has stood by its current sales trajectory despite predictions of a Chinese car overrun in the next 10 years. 

By 2035, 43 per cent of cars imported to Australia will come from China, up from 17 per cent in 2025. This is according to recent analysis from the Centre for International Economics, a research firm engaged by the Australian Automotive Dealer Association (AADA). 

Kia Australia chief executive Damien Meredith addressed the prediction recently at the launch of the marque’s new Tasman ute. As the person who has orchestrated Kia’s meteoric rise over the past 12 years – to now be ranked Australia’s fourth most popular new car brand – Meredith says legacy car brands will have three options amid China’s rise. 

“You have three choices if there’s a dominant situation occurring: you can leave the market, you can shrink to what you think is going to be fair and reasonable, or you can take the view that we’re taking and that is you can continue to grow our business,” Meredith explained. 

“It didn’t come as a shock but 43 per cent of sales of probably what will be a 1.3 million to 1.4 million car market annually in 10 years’ time – that’s a lot of Chinese cars.” 

Chinese brands have flooded the Australian market over the past three years, with a huge swing in sales to the likes of BYD, Chery and Geely. More than 20 Chinese brands are currently active in the market, and a host of others have flagged their intentions to test the Australian waters, led by the likes of Foton Motor.

Key to China’s future growth is the country’s specialty in electric vehicles, in which it continues to lead the industry globally. 

According to Meredith, there will still be room for legacy players in the Australian market, but they will need to be adaptable and up to speed on customer demands. 

“If you’re a Korean manufacturer or a Japanese manufacturer, it doesn’t leave much to fight after but I want to assure all of you, from a Kia point of view our growth will continue over that period of time,” Meredith said. 

“We’ve proven in the previous 10 years that we believe it’s sustainable growth and we are sure that will continue with our great product, our great technology and what’s really important – a solid and strong dealer network.” 

Rewinding back 10 years ago, China had virtually no presence in Australia, while Japan enjoyed a collective market share close to 30 per cent. 

AADA chief executive James Voortman said his organisation would remain vigilant around all brands in Australia, to ensure they live up to consumer and industry expectations. 

“Australia is at an inflection point where we are going to see exponential growth of sales and new brands from China which we are already starting to see now. This growth comes on top of the change to electric vehicle drivetrains,” Voortman explained. 

“This rate of growth can have unintended implications to consumer protections such as the supply of parts, wait times to service vehicles, and the long-term ability of manufacturers to guarantee their consumer warranties. 

“Australian consumers have long expected a level of service from AADA members upon purchasing a new vehicle and we want to continue to meet that expectation. To do that, we will be talking to government about what consumer protections are adequate and appropriate to support Australian dealers and consumers in what is, on average, the second largest asset Australian’s buy in their lifetime.”