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A US-backed, Israel-led attack on Iran over the weekend has reignited conversation about what effect further unrest in the Middle East may have on both short- and long-term fuel prices for Australian motorists.
The largest military flare-up in the Middle East since the 12-day war in Iran last year (that ran from 13 to 24 June), all eyes are back on the Strait of Hormuz – the main channel bordering Iran through which roughly one fifth of the world’s crude oil consumption travels from the Middle East.
With President Trump stating the joint military operation against Iran could take up to four weeks to reach resolution, interruption or forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz has become a more plausible outcome.
Were the Strait to become compromised, crude oil prices – and subsequently Australia’s refined fuel prices – would markedly increase, however the NRMA’s Peter Khoury maintains a calm but cautious outlook.
“[A spike in crude oil prices] is pretty consistent whenever there is a flare-up in the Middle East,” Mr Khoury stated.
“[At this stage], we believe the Strait of Hormuz is still open for tankers and they are travelling safely through.
“If Iran can shut the Strait, and choose to do so, that would be a significant supply chain shock to oil … We would likely see prices skyrocket if that occurs.”
Any increase in global crude oil prices is generally delayed by about seven to 10 days before it reflects in Australian fuel prices, via the Malaysian Tapis spot price for crude oil. This means Australians could face higher costs at the bowser as soon as this upcoming weekend or early into next week.
Turning back to the 12-day war of 2025 for reference, Australian fuel prices went up between five and 10 per cent following the conflict but returned back to normal within a few days. “We’d like to see the same thing happen here, but it’s very volatile and hard to predict,” Mr Khoury added.
As always, the message is not to panic. At this stage, it still remains to be seen what this latest unrest in the Middle East will mean for Australian motorists, according to Mr Khoury.
“Whatever oil price shock we get will stabilise and prices will fall back down again,” he explained. “Get on the NRMA app and check your prices locally if you’re looking to fill up now.”
