Fuel costs and supply in Australia: when will fuel prices drop? Your questions answered
With unrest in the Middle East continuing, there remains continued volatilty at the bowser for Australian motorists as the petrol price holds stubbornly at about $2 per litre.
Is there an end in sight? Open Road speaks to the experts to sort fact from fiction and provide answers to the most pressing questions around a potential Australian fuel crisis.
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Today's key updates
AUGUST 31
Fresh military action set to drive up fuel prices
A resumption of hostilities in Iran could see global oil prices creeping up again as petrol remains stubbornly around $2 per litre.
In response to news of the US striking Iranian military targets and deploying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil climbed above US$85 a barrel for the first time in a month, according to Trading Economics.
Oil prices have been consistently higher than normal since the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz kicked off in March, hitting a peak of more than US$112 a barrel in April.
The price dropped as low as US$68 a barrel in July, when it appeared US president Donald Trump and Iranian officials had reached a peace deal, but the situation has proven volatile and unpredictable.
As of Monday August 31, the average price of E10 unleaded fuel in Sydney sits at 201.4 cents per litre, with regular unleaded around 205 cents and premium 95RON closer to 220 cents per litre.
Things are even tougher for the owners of diesel vehicles, with prices nudging up around 240-250 cents per litre. That equates to $150 to fill a 60-litre tank.
Australia’s fuel stocks remain steady, with 41 days of petrol and 36 days of diesel available as of August 25 according to the federal government’s Fuel Plan website.
AUGUST 3
Fuel excise relief ended on 3 August
Excise relief that had applied since April officially came to an end on 3 August.
The federal government reinstated the excise, despite pressure from some quarters to extend the concession on fuel as a means of easing cost-of-living pressures.
“Prices are going to continue to go up, given the wholesale price has gone up by 17 cents a litre,” said NRMA spokesperson, Peter Khoury. “Nationally, the average went up by about 3.2 cents a litre overnight – so there is an increase, but obviously nowhere near as bad as what people had been braced for.
“The NRMA’s analysis released this morning shows the gap between premium 98, the most expensive fuel on our market, and E10, the cheapest, is now as wide as 30 cents a litre. That’s a huge difference – about a $16.50 saving on a standard 55-litre tank if you’re buying E10. Most Australians today are driving cars that don’t need 98.”
The effect of the Iran conflict on world oil prices. Source: Trading Economics
JULY 15
New Strait of Hormuz development to impact petrol prices
The NRMA believes prices at the bowser will likely creep up incrementally as a result of US President Donald Trump’s floated toll on ships.
US President Donald Trump’s proposed toll on ships tracking through one of the world’s major oil routes will likely lead to increased petrol prices in Australia if it comes off, according to the NRMA.
Speaking with media in Sydney, NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury said Trump’s floated toll had already contributed to a small spike in oil prices.
The press conference came hours after Trump posted a threat to impose a 20 per cent fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming he wanted to be “reimbursed” for protecting a “rich portion of the world” via a 20 per cent impost on all cargo shipped through the passage.
It came amid renewed strikes against Iran that have killed at least 25 people over three days.
"There's no doubt that markets have reacted," Khoury told reporters.
“There have been movements in both gasoil and tapas over the past few weeks – they are our regional benchmark prices for diesel and petrol respectively. Gasoil has gone up $7 a barrel and there’s been much smaller increases for tapas, it has gone up about $3 a barrel.”
Khoury stressed that terminal gate prices – which is the best barometer for what will happen to bowser prices in Australia – were holding “fairly stable” at the time of writing.
“What we need to be looking at is an end to all the chaos; that is the Strait reopening without a 20 per cent surcharge or whatever the fee system is,” Khoury said.
“We want to make sure we stability in the Middle East, and until the Strait reopens there’s going to be volatility.”
The Strait of Hormuz development comes as the Federal Government contemplates whether to extend the fuel excise cut for a second time beyond its current end date of August 2.
"I think the Treasurer has been pretty clear that we'll continue to monitor the situation," Emergency Management Minister Kristy McBain told ABC radio on Tuesday.
"We've extended that obviously until the end of this month, and we'll monitor the situation and see what else needs to be done."
After the fuel excise discount was halved in July, the average price of unleaded petrol rose by 3.2 cents a litre.
APRIL 16
Impact of refinery blaze won't be known straight away
Federal Energy Minister Chris Bowen has admitted an accidental fire at a Geelong oil refinery is likely to impact local production in Australia "for some time", however the jury remains out on whether it will affect pricing or supply at the bowser.
A section of the Viva Energy-owned refinery went up in flames just after 11pm on Wednesday, the company has confirmed. The fire occurred in a unit that transforms LPG to gasoline components, according to Viva Energy chief executive Scott Wyatt.
With that said, Wyatt confirmed other areas of the facility dedicated to petrol production remain unaffected.
"We'll only start increasing production again once we're confident that we can do that safely," he said.
"We'll obviously have to do it without these two units in operation and we'll work through how we do that over the next couple of days and get back to the highest level of production we can across the site."
The Geelong site is continuing to produce diesel and jet fuel "at reduced levels" due to safety precautions, Bowen told the ABC.
"At this point, production of diesel and jet fuel continues and [there is] no reason to believe at this point that it will stop that," he said.
The Viva refinery, along with an Ampol-owned Lytton refinery in Brisbane each provide about 10 per cent of Australia's fuel, with the remainder of the country's petrol, diesel and jet fuel imported from overseas.
Open Road has reached out to industry officials for further comment.
APRIL 8
Two week ceasefire announced on 8 April
On 8 April, a two week ceasefire between the US and Iran was announced. In hopes that transit through the key Strait of Hormuz could resume, the price of Brent crude fell by up to 17 per cent before trading near $US95 a barrel. Should the ceasefire hold, lower prices should continue through to the Asian markets, leading to lower wholesale prices here in Australia.
Ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran took place over the second weekend of April and failed to conclude in a formal deal, leaving the agreement dependent of continued compliance by both sides. As of 13 April 2026, US president Donald Trump initiated US warships to blockafde the Strait of Hormuz in a high-stakes military action to cut off Iran’s maritime trade. Upon the announcement, crude oil prices surged back above $100 a barrel.
How much fuel does Australia have left?
Australia’s fuel stocks remain steady, with 41 days of petrol and 36 days of diesel available as of August 25 according to the federal government’s Fuel Plan website.
Geelong Refinery in Victoria. Image credit: Adobe Stock
Has Australia dipped into its fuel reserves before?
Yes, at the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022 Australia opened its fuel reserves, although this was deemed a precautionary measure rather than a necessity.
Once the prices stabilised these stockpiles were replenished.
Should I buy fuel now and store it just in case?
No, panic-buying only causes additional problems (remember the hoarding of toilet paper during COVID lockdowns?). Hoarding fuel is already leading to service stations running out of supply, especially in rural areas which may only have one small station in town.
What are the pros and cons of E10 petrol?
Using E10 has been a divisive topic in Australia for some years, owed in part to fears that petrol blended with ethanol was either potentially damaging to vehicles or provided lower fuel efficiency. We encourage motorists to check their vehicle's logbook advice. If the manufacturer recommends E10 is suitable for your engine, feel confident to use it as a cheaper alternative. E10 sold is 10 per cent domestically produced ethanol, which takes pressure off the supply chain.
I have a road trip planned – what should I do?
Governments, the NRMA and other economic experts have urged people to continue travelling to regional NSW.
The My NRMA app can help you find the cheapest fuel near you in Australia, plus the latest fuel supply at your local station.
A new ‘Fuel Supply Taskforce’ has been created. What will it do?
The government has created a ‘national fuel supply taskforce’ to help coordinate Australia’s response to the growing fuel crisis. The taskforce is tasked with unifying how the federal and state governments approach supply levels and how fuel is distributed around the country. Each state and territory is represented on the taskforce, which is chaired by Anthea Harris who was previously the CEO of the Australian Energy Regulator.
As well as coordinating policy, the taskforce will provide regular updates on Australia’s fuel supply levels and oversee how fuel is being distributed to ensure it reaches the regions that need it most.
— NRMA spokesman, Peter Khoury
Will fuel prices continue to increase in Australia?
Many factors affect how much consumers pay at the bowser. At the fuel security round table, the NRMA raised concerns about the pace of fuel price increases and lack of transparency.
Whether prices continue to rise will be dependent on future wholesale price movements. Long-term fuel prices depend on the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has been attacking ships, in effect closing the strait to certain nations. If this supply route continues to remain closed, it may further drive up the cost of crude oil, which will in turn affect wholesale prices in Australia and the price of fuel at the pump.
Fuel prices have risen sharply as of mid-March 2026. Image credit: The NRMA
When is the Iran conflict going to end?
The US Government said it initially anticipated a military campaign of four to six weeks in Iran, with the first strikes occurring on February 28.
President Donald Trump, however, has refused to commit to an end date and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is on record as saying Iran will “continue this resistance without any hesitation."
What else to know
When will fuel prices fall?
A meaningful, sustained fall in pump prices requires either a resolution to the Middle East conflict, a significant reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, or a sharp drop in global crude demand. In the meantime, the practical advice remains to use the My NRMA app to find the cheapest servo in your area and avoid panic buying, which only accelerates price rises.
Are sudden price increases by servos legal?
Under Australian law, service stations and oil companies are permitted to set their own prices. The NRMA does not support price regulation as a general principle, as it is competition – not regulation – that keeps prices down. Motorists are encouraged to support service stations that consistently offer competitive prices, and to avoid those that do not.
Why did prices rise before wholesale costs change?
The NRMA has been unambiguous: price gouging occurred, particularly in the first week of the crisis and most visibly in Australia's three largest cities. Retail prices rose before any increase in wholesale costs, at a point in the price cycle when margins were already well above 50 cents per litre. The NRMA referred this to the ACCC and called on it to name and shame the operators responsible.
Why does regional Australia bear the brunt?
Two issues are affecting regional communities simultaneously: regional price increases and supply shortages. On price, many regional centres have actually fared better than capital cities, where the most severe increases occurred. On supply, shortages appear to be driven by a combination of panic buying and reports that independent operators are struggling to access fuel from terminals at fair prices. The NRMA is calling for both issues to be addressed.
Petrol transportation and delivery of petrol across regional Australia have faced major disruptions and delays. Image credit: Adobe Stock
How can motorists report price gouging?
Excessive pricing can be reported directly to the ACCC. Motorists are also encouraged to use the My NRMA app to locate the most competitively priced service stations in their area.
Find the latest fuel prices near you on the My NRMA app. Image credit: The NRMA
What is the NRMA doing beyond raising awareness?
The NRMA is a mutual that exists to represent the interests of our members. We are in regular communication with government regarding concerns observed both at the bowser and within the supply terminals and advocating on motorists' behalf. We are also continuing to invest in EV communications and charging infrastructure across regional Australia, recognising that the long-term answer to fuel price volatility lies in reducing dependence on oil.
Is fuel excise profiting the government during the crisis?
Fuel excise is collected at the point of sale and directed to the Federal Government, where it is intended to fund road construction and maintenance. The GST also applies to the excise itself, with the proceeds distributed to state governments. The NRMA's position is that the excise serves an important purpose, and that a greater proportion of revenue should be directed back into road infrastructure – a position it continues to advocate for with both federal and state governments.
