Weekly Fuel report - 30th of March 2020
Summary 30 March 2020
Weekly average Tapis (Asian crude) price fell 3.3 cents per litre (cpl) in $A.
The weekly average Singapore price of unleaded petrol, Mogas 95, which is the key petrol benchmark for Australia fell from US$ 29.09 to $US 22.57 a barrel this past week, equal to a fall of 7.2 cpl in $A.
Global oil prices are now at the lowest since December 2003 (BASICALLY AT 18 YEAR LOWS.) due to the following factors:
1. Expansion of coronavirus cases globally across 199 countries and territories.
2. Oil prices declined for a fifth consecutive week. Global oil demand – estimated by Bloomberg to be running 20-25 million barrels a day below supply – has weakened due to the coronavirus crisis impact on household and business consumption.
3. Crude supply has surged due to the ongoing Russia-Saudi Arabia rift amid a battle for increased market share. Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Mr. Pavel Sorokin said current crude oil prices were “unpleasant” but not a catastrophe.
4. Heightened fears that the COVID-19 VIRUS will slow economic growth and therefore demand for energy products. Investors have continued to focus on the spread of cases outside China.
Australian motorists should see average regular unleaded prices fall through the $1 per litre mark in the next 2-3 weeks. Adelaide has already fallen below the $1 level, and Perth will follow this week.
Sydney Metropolitan Area
Sydney unleaded petrol average prices ( E10, Regular, Premium 95 and Premium 98 grades of fuel ) have fallen 18 cpl this past week.
Average regular unleaded prices re now expected to fall below 95 cents per litre in the coming 2-3 weeks, and 90 cents per litre in 4 weeks.
Current average wholesale price for regular unleaded in Sydney is 87.8 cpl, down 8.1 cpl on last week. Wholesale prices are at 16 year lows.
Today is Day 11 of the new cycle. The last cycle was 34 days in duration, 3 days longer than the previous cycle.
Current average prices are as follows E10 – 119.2 cpl, Regular – 121.4 cpl, Premium 95 – 137.7 cpl and Premium 98 – 143.2 cpl.
Sydney’s average diesel price is 131.0 cpl, down 3.6 cpl this past week.
Average Sydney LPG price is 83.8 cpl, down 0.3 cpl this past week.
Central Coast, Newcastle and Wollongong
Last week average regular unleaded prices have fallen 3.0 cpl in Wollongong, 3.8 in Newcastle and 3.9 cpl for the Central Coast.
Regional NSW
Over the past week average regular unleaded prices fell 3.0 cpl while diesel prices also fell 3.0 cpl. Over the past three weeks regular unleaded and diesel prices have now fallen 9.2 cpl and 8.0 cpl in regional NSW.
In the past week - most notable price movements in regional towns occurred as follows:
1. Regular Unleaded prices – rises nil.
2. Regular Unleaded prices – falls, Forster 8.3 cpl, Gunnedah 9.8 cpl and Mudgee 11.0 cpl.
3. Diesel prices – rises, nil.
4. Diesel prices – falls, 5.7 cpl in Tumut, 6.7 cpl in Forster and Mudgee, and 7.8 cpl in Gunnedah.
World Crude Oil Prices
Over the previous week:
Sydney prices
Sydney’s last price cycle lasted 34 days, 3 days shorter than previous cycle. Today is day 11 of the current price cycle, with the average price for regular unleaded fuel in Sydney at 121.4 cents per litre (Monday morning).
The most expensive point of the current cycle was Friday 20 March at 142.3 cents per litre for regular unleaded petrol. The highest prices for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 were 141.4, 161.1 and 164.7 cents per litre respectively.
Looking ahead
Over the past week, the average Mogas price fell 7.2 cents per litre with the Australian dollar rising 2.5 cents to 61.0 cents against the US dollar. Average unleaded prices have fallen 17.2 cents per litre this past week and should fall below 95 cents per litre in the coming 2-3 weeks, and 90 cents per litre in 4 weeks.
Average regular unleaded prices in Sydney should range between 142 cents per litre (at the high point of the current cycle) and 90 cents per litre (at the low point of the current cycle).
The average price ranges for E10, Premium 95 and Premium 98 should be as follows:
E10 – a high point of 141 cents per litre and a low point of 88 cents per litre.
Premium 95 – a high point of 161 cents per litre and a low point of 108 cents per litre.
Premium 98 – a high point of 165 cents per litre and a low point of 112 cents per litre.
Sydney’s current average diesel price is 131.0 cents per litre – down 3.6 cents per litre this past week.
The current average LPG price in Sydney is 83.8 cents per litre – down 0.3 cents per litre this past week.
*Forecast estimates only, we recommend using the fuel search in the my nrma app to compare fuel prices in real-time.
NRMA produces a weekly fuel report to help Members be better informed on petrol prices and the fuel cycle to help with savings at the bowser. The NRMA Member exclusive my nrma app also has fuel finder functionality comparing the price of fuel in the NSW searched area.
